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In one of the more remarkable turnarounds in recent financial history, Polymarket — the blockchain-based prediction platform that exited the US market under regulatory pressure in 2022 — has made its way back to American users as a CFTC-regulated product. The journey back was anything but smooth. In November 2025, FBI agents raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, a moment that seemed…
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Prediction markets are growing fast — but so is the legal and political fight over who has the authority to govern them. At the center of the dispute is a fundamental jurisdictional question: are prediction market contracts a form of gambling, subject to state gaming laws, or are they financial derivatives, exclusively regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)? The answer has…
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Prediction markets have gone from a niche corner of financial speculation to one of the fastest-growing sectors in American gambling and finance — and the numbers are staggering. According to investment bank Bernstein, total US prediction market volumes in 2026 are on pace to hit $240 billion, a 370% increase over 2025’s $51 billion. At that growth rate, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani projects the…
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