Prediction markets have gone from a niche corner of financial speculation to one of the fastest-growing sectors in American gambling and finance — and the numbers are staggering.
According to investment bank Bernstein, total US prediction market volumes in 2026 are on pace to hit $240 billion, a 370% increase over 2025’s $51 billion. At that growth rate, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani projects the market could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by 2030. Monthly trading volume has already surged from $1.2 billion in early 2025 to more than $20 billion by January 2026, according to blockchain research firm TRM Labs.
The two dominant platforms — Kalshi and Polymarket — hold a combined valuation north of $30 billion. Kalshi alone grew from 600,000 active monthly users at the start of 2025 to 5.1 million by early 2026, while its 2025 notional trading volume hit $23.8 billion, representing over 1,100% year-over-year growth. Sports contracts have been the engine, accounting for roughly 68–75% of the platform’s total trading activity.
The momentum has attracted major players from outside the traditional prediction market space. Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets hub in partnership with Kalshi, becoming the platform’s fastest-growing product line by revenue, with 11 billion contracts traded by more than one million customers in 2025. Coinbase followed with its own Kalshi partnership in January 2026. DraftKings launched its prediction market vertical in December 2025, rolling out across 38 states — including California, Texas, and Florida, where traditional sports betting remains unlicensed. FanDuel launched its own product three days later.
The makeup of the market is also expected to shift. While sports contracts dominate today, Bernstein expects institutional interest in macroeconomic and political contracts — covering interest rates, GDP, elections, and corporate events — to grow significantly, as businesses and investors look for ways to hedge against specific real-world risks.
For now, the trajectory is clear. Prediction markets have moved well beyond novelty status, and the platforms, investors, and regulators who ignored them a year ago are paying close attention.
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*For informational purposes only. Prediction market regulations vary. Always verify that any platform you use is properly licensed before participating.*